Brier Score
-
0 = perfect, 0.25 = random
Max Drawdown
-
peak-to-trough
Omega Ratio
-
> 1.0 = profitable
Log Score
-
higher = better calibrated
Category Performance Overview
| Category | Predictions | Brier Score | Win Rate | ROI | Status |
|---|
Click YES/NO on open positions to resolve them
| ID | Market | Category | Decision |
Market P | Model P | EV | Stake |
Bull | Bear | Base |
Confidence | KL Div |
Outcome | PnL | Actions |
Calibration Curve
Perfect calibration = diagonal line. Points above = overconfident. Points below = underconfident.
Calibration Data
| Predicted Prob | Actual Rate | Count | Error |
|---|
Probability Distribution of Predictions